By There aren’t yet any predicted sales figures for Android enabled phones – heck, we still don’t know what phones will be the first to have Android – but Google exec Rich Miner has already claimed that Android Phones will outsell iPhones.
Them be some fightin’ words.
His Reasoning? “Once you have devices out there from Motorola, HTC, Samsung and so on, there’s a much larger potential market for Android than the iPhone.” Thank you Mr. Miner… that’s what we’ve been trying to explain to Apple Fanboys ever since the iPhone SDK was released. In addition, the iPhone has “a single manufacturer” and it’s “targeted at a particular demographic”.
Android will be the clear winner, and Rich Miner pinpointed some of the basic reasons why. Now obviously, the strength of each platform will need success by its own merit – these issues alone won’t take Android beyond the iPhone. But all else being equal, Android has unlimited potential for market share and growth while you could argue the iPhone is pigeon holed to particular niche by a particular manufacturer and even a particular wireless carrier (at the moment).
Although the iPhone SDK reached 100,000 quicker than its Android counterpart, Android SDK downloads now near 1 million and it doesn’t even have a device to taut. Motorola, Samsung, HTC and LG are all part of the Open Handset Alliance and all expect to release an Android enabled phone in the latter part of 2008. Miner suggested that HTC would be first to market.
And while Miner was optimistic about Android, he didn’t completely dismiss Apple’s progress. Instead, he suggested that each had different markets and there was plenty of room for both. In fact, if he was a developer, he would be developing for both platforms.
The iPhone SDK has received mostly praise, excitement and glowing reviews but it should be pointed out that there are some real skeptics who haven’t been as kind in their criticism as Rich Miner. Zac Bowling for example called the iPhone SDK a joke.
He leads off his scathing review by saying, “The developer program is turning out to be bunch of hype for something stupid. The restrictions on what your application is allowed to do is total, laugh-out-loud, crap.”
Android has its fair share of detractors as well, but one thing is certain: a lot of people will be referencing Miner’s quote when people are comparing iPhone and Android enabled phone sales come Christmas time.
What did anyone expect a Google executive to say… that the iPhone SDK was better? Of course not. Also, I think Miner might have his Michael Dell “give the shares back to the shareholders” moment by saying that the restrictions are “laugh-out-loud, crap” especially since people haven’t seen what applications are currently in development. I’m developing an iPhone application right now, as are thousands of people, and the benefits of creating a native iPhone app and getting onto the App Store outweigh the restrictions, at least for me.
I can obviously see the interesting applications that are not able to be created — at this time — but that doesn’t mean that all interesting/useful/popular applications are nixed because they can’t run in the background or run interpreted code. There are going to be thousands of programs and games available for people to download that fully comply with the restrictions, and a whole lot of iPhone owners will be going crazy downloading, comparing, and reviewing these apps. Also, the SDK is currently in beta and Apple is actively seeking feedback to make it better, so there might be some restrictions lifted and functionality added in the coming months. So if the things that make Miner upset about the SDK are remedied, what will his quote sound like then?
Does nobody see history repeating here? In the early days of home computing Apple competed against Microsoft, and MS established itself in the market by licensing its software to as many manufacturers as it could. Now Google ensures that its software will run on as many mobile phones as possible.
I wont say that Apples software is bad, as far as I know its actually very good. Lets just hope that we wont see another war in the industry like the one between MS and Apple. It wouldnt do anyone any good.
Come on, if anything those manufacturers will change to it will be Windows Mobile. Nowadays Google is going into the territory it has no knowledge of, and it fails in pretty much everything unrelated to the web search. Why will Android be any different?
Me: (I hope I’m not really talking to myself)
I think the difference between Android and “everything else” is that the viable alternatives to Android aren’t very good… thats the purpose in Android. Combine that with the fact that 30+ companies are backing its success, including manufacturers creating handheld devices built specifically for the platform who will contribute millions of marketing dollars to make sure they float… I think the power is there to make it work. Android just has to be “good enough” when it is released.
A lot of what will make it “good enough” is a wealth of applications and a huge number of consumers who are using the applications and able to connect with eachother BECAUSE of the applications. Those two remain to be seen.
Just because Google hasn’t “hit it big” with anything besides web search doesn’t mean they won’t on the “next try” – you can’t deny that Android has huge potential. Look at Gmail and Google Maps… these are services that AREN’T search functions that have gained mass appeal.
I just think Android has all the stars in alignment for revolutionary success. Although, I am willing to admit that your argument does hold some weight and in that sense is a fair criticism.
Google only succeeded at *web search*!?
I guess consumer GIS and mapping services don’t count? Email? Blogs (remember when your personal site was choked with yahoo and geocities popups)?
Google is moving into new markets so they will fail!? Again, GIS, Keyhole.
You people are out of your minds. Buy iPhones if that makes you happy. I am not knocking Apple’s accomplishments. But don’t pretend Google has not succeeded at anything when the past six years has seen nothing but unprecedented growth and successful products/services — even if you don’t personally like them.
I personally can’t stand the way Apple locks-in and strangles their own customers. But if having a device whose name starts with “i” makes you happier, then buy the Apple device.
The point of the SDK restrictions is that iPhone cannot possibly compete with an open source mobile platform with those kinds of restrictions. This ensures the iPhone market will always be a small niche of Apple fans.