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Research firm Strategy Analytics has predicted that shipments of phones running Google Android will increase 900% in 2009 as availability from more manufacturers, operators, vendors and developers increases drastically. They compare this to an estimated 79 percent growth for the Apple iPhone.
Tom Kang, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics:
“We forecast global Android smartphone shipments to grow an impressive 900 percent annually during 2009. The Android mobile operating system from Google gained early traction in the United States in the second half of 2008 and it is gradually spreading its presence into Europe and Asia during 2009. Android is expanding from a low base and it is consequently outgrowing the iPhone OS from Apple, which we estimate will grow at a relatively lower 79 percent annually in 2009.”
Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics:
“Android has fast been winning healthy support among operators, vendors and developers. A relatively low-cost licensing model, its semi-open-source structure and Google’s support for cloud services have encouraged companies such as HTC, Motorola, Samsung, T Mobile, Vodafone and others to support the Android operating system. Android is now in a good position to become a top-tier player in smartphones over the next two to three years.”
Lets be fair to Apple here… they shipped over 11 million iPhones in 2008 which pummels whatever Android’s final numbers were. So essentially we’re comparing a small percentage of a lot to a huge percentage of a little… calculating how it will eventually add up is anything but easy. But it looks like when all is said and done, Android will at least give the iPhone shipment numbers a run for their money if not surpass them altogether. That will depend on what Android Phones we see by year end and what new iPhone treats Apple has in store. I’m hoping for the best of both worlds.
[Via StrategyAnalytics]
Hehehe is that little Android guy taking Viagra or what! :)
Why even bother comparing Android handsets shipped with iPhone?
Surely it is a false measure as Android will be shipping on multiple bits of hardware supplied by different vendors whereas iPhone is 1 phone, 1 bit of kit…
So, essentially we’re comparing O/S sales vs hardware sales?
Android is great and all, this just seems like a pointless activity.
Good point JamWheel. I think the comparison is valid though, as the iPhone is the leading smartphone in terms of month over month sales increase.
By your argument we should not compare Blackberries since they all run various versions of a different OS on their own hardware too.
I think Rob clearly indicates in his last paragraph the need for taking these numbers with a grain of salt.
One point that we all should remember. Apple and China Mobile, at last look were not working together. Android was probably going to be deployed at some point based on news from Phandriod (and others). If that happens this growth is likely a LOW estimate, as China Mobile has more users than the USA has in total population.
I welcome the China Mobile users and hope their devs get submitting multi-language apps. Imagine the growth in our Market app.
Aren’t the 2009 figures it really easy to work out?
iPhone (2008, 11 Million + 79%) = 8.7 Million in 2009.
Android (2008, 0.5 Million + 900%) = 4.5 Million in 2009. …right?
If Craig’s right on the math…I love the sound of 4.5 million phones, that means developers will really start taking notice of our platform!
Rob: many thanks (particularly for providing the link to the actual SA press, which other sites forgot to do). I was figuring about 2 million phones (USA) by end of ’09 based on the run rate (which I thought to be about 145K units per month as of April). So I could see 4+ million WW.
I also think smartphones are invigorating the mobile phone market (de-commodifying it) so compares can be tricky, because everybody will be trying to change the game by adding new features, apps, sales motions etc. But at the end of the day it’s about function, price and availability, and the revenue. I think Android is a good bet.
Best of both worlds, amen brother.
Lets get some sweet kits stateside pronto, my G1 wants some new buddies.
As far as I know there was 1mln Android phones sold in US.
http://www.mobitrends.com/2009/04/23/1-million-android-g1-sold-in-the-us/